ISSN 2782-2346
THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS AND PRACTICE OF USING FORECASTING RESULTS IN THE REGIONAL EDUCATION SYSTEM
Burdakova Anna A. – Deputy Head of the Analytical Center, Federal State Budgetary Institution «Federal Testing Center», Moscow, Russia, ann4burdakova@yandex.ru
UDC: 371
In order to identify the ways of applying forecasting results in the education system, the article analyzes regulatory documents and theoretical sources. Due to the fact that in scientific research the issues of using forecast data are not fully disclosed, attention is paid to interdisciplinary searches in the economy, social sphere, in the field of informatization and education. It has been established that the most common and effective approaches and methods of using forecasts are: development programs developed at the federal, regional, municipal levels, as well as at the level of individual educational organizations; projects implemented within the framework of created innovative platforms at the level of the whole country or a separate region; management decisions approving procedures and algorithms of long-term actions initiating innovative processes; methodological recommendations and plans taking into account the forecasting results. The article describes the practice of applying the forecasting results in the course of developing a program for the development of the regional education system (using Primorsky Krai as an example), including the creation and implementation of subprograms in the following areas: pre-school and general (primary, basic, secondary) education; additional education of children; vocational education. To implement each subprogram, roadmaps have been developed that include tasks, measures and activities, deadlines, performers, and results of the implementation of measures and activities.
Key words: forecasting, forecast, methods of using forecasts, development programs, education, projects, management decisions
For citation: Burdakova A. A. THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS AND PRACTICE OF USING FORECASTING RESULTS IN THE REGIONAL EDUCATION SYSTEM. Pedagogicheskie issledovaniya = Pedagogical Research. 2025;(4):31–56. (In Russ.).
References:
1. Izosimov S. V., Shevchenko A. L., Shevchenko V. L. Forecasting methods and their application in management practice. Economics. 2014;(3):72-77. (In Russ.).
2. Kravtsov M. K., Yuralevich A. A., Dekhtyar T. A. Forecasting macroeconomic indicators based on an extended version of the econometric intersectoral model. Economy, modeling, forecasting. 2022;(16):223-236. (In Russ.).
3. Yakimova V. A., Pankova S. V. Forecasting regional growth points of digital ecosystems. Russian Economic Journal. 2025;(1):72-92. (In Russ.).
4. Shanygin S. I., Shustrov I. N. Innovation in modern Russia: regional patterns and models. Finance and business. 2024;(20(4)):3-19. (In Russ.).
5. Nazarova V. V., Molokova E. L. Methods and tools for forecasting socio-economic development. Stolypin Bulletin. 2024;(6(8)). (In Russ.).
6. Risin I. E., Nikitina L. M., Treshchevsky D. Yu. Strategic management of the development of the innovation sphere of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Bulletin of the South-West State University. Series: Economics. Sociology. Management. 2020;(10(5)):80-88. (In Russ.).
7. Oreshnikov V. V., Nizamutdinov M. M. Forecast of the demographic development of a municipality using methods of economic and mathematical modeling. Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice. 2022;(8(527)):1562-1582. (In Russ.).
8. Machekhina N. A. Digitalization of education: current state and development forecast. Issues of pedagogy. 2019;(3):195-198. (In Russ.).
9. Kondakov A. M., Sergeev I. S. Methodology for designing general education in the context of digital transformation. Pedagogy. 2021;(1):5-24. (In Russ.).
10. Volokh T. S., Moldaspaeva A. B. State and Forecasts for the Development of Distance Education. Pedagogy & Psychology. Theory and Practice. 2022;(3(41)):6-9. (In Russ.).
11. Laguseva N. N. Transformation of the Higher Education System in Russia: Forecasts, Models, Trends. Bulletin of the Russian Academic Youth Union. 2022;(3):17-22. (In Russ.).
12. Zholovan S. V. Conceptual Foundations for the Development of Continuous Education as an Object of Forecasting. Man and Education. 2019;(1(58)):173-182. (In Russ.).
13. Tryapitsyna A. P. Regional Education Development Programs as a Mechanism for Education Development in the Regions. Letters to the Issue. Offline. 2005;(2):989. (In Russ.).
14. Aristenko N. A., Popyrina T. A. Designing a Program for the Development of the Education System of a Municipal District in the Context of the National Project «Education» Based on a Regional System for Assessing the Quality of Education. Scientific and Methodological Support for Assessing the Quality of Education. 2020;(2(10)):5-11. (In Russ.).
15. Gubanova E. V., Lazareva M. V. Development Program as a Tool for Project Management of an Educational Organization. Scientific Notes of the St. Petersburg University of Management Technologies and Economics. 2020;(4(72)):5-12. (In Russ.).
16. Rusetsky V. F. Conceptual foundations and program for developing scientific forecasts for the development of preschool, general secondary and special education. Pedagogical science and education. 2023;(2(43)):10-17. (In Russ.).
